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310 seats likely to go to BJP in 2024 Lok Sabha elections, says Raamdeo Agarwal, citing betting markets

The biggest question in Indian stock markets right now is: what will be the outcome of the ongoing elections to the Lok Sabha, the lower house of the Indian Parliament?

How many seats will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win? How many of them will be caught by his allies? Will the BJP under the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi maintain a majority in the Indian Parliament?

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In 2019, the party itself won 303 seats. The BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) won 352 of the 543 seats in the Lok Sabha.

While there appears to be consensus that Modi will return as India’s prime minister for a third consecutive term, the margin of victory still appears uncertain by various accounts, leading to some nervousness in markets where participants fear a change in policy if there is a regime change.

Raamdeo Agrawal, chairman of Motilal Oswal Group, a Mumbai-based financial services company, is confident that the BJP will win with a clear majority and that the party can win more seats than in 2019.

“Even the betting markets, which are much more independent, are talking about 310 BJP alone. If this number appears, at least the event will be behind us,” he said in an interview with CNBC-TV18.

“In my opinion, the way they talk about any big number, 300 plus, 340, 350, you almost see what the result is going to be,” Agrawal added.

Lok Sabha election results 2019 Seats Participation in voting
NDA 352 44.87%
UPA 91 26.74%

Voting, which began on April 19, consists of six stages. The seventh and final stage will take place on June 1, and the results will be announced on June 4.

The results of the exit polls, which are essentially the cumulative result of surveying voters at polling stations, will be published by the organizations conducting them on June 1.

“The coolest thing is that all the people in political circles, important party people, know the result because they watch the exit polls every day. Five phases have been completed, after their own exit they will have some premonition of the poll,” Agrawal said.

Here are some other expectations from the Lok Sabha election results:

“Nifty50 may test the 25,000 level if Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) wins a third term in the upcoming Lok Sabha elections,” JPMorgan, a global investment bank, said in early May 2024.

“The only question is how many seats they will get, but for me it doesn’t matter as long as they come back and continue their policies with the same ferocity as before,” Hiren Ved, director and chief investment officer at Alchemy Capital Management, said Moneycontrol May 20.

“I think it actually looks like it will be Modi 3.0. I think anything else would disrupt the market. Governments that have been in power for two cycles usually don’t change much in their third term unless they’re under pressure, and right now the government really isn’t under pressure,” Richard Harris, CEO of Port Shelter Investment Management, told CNBC-TV18 on May 3 . You can watch the entire interview here:

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Conclusion | Don’t throw caution to the wind in this growing market